HR2853

The Combating Organized Retail Crime Act of 2025 (HR2853) has been placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 402, on January 30, 2026. This indicates the bill is ready for floor consideration in the House of Representatives. The bill aims to establish a federal framework to combat organized retail crime, which has been a significant drain on retailers' profits. This legislative action directly addresses a major operational challenge for large retail chains, promising to reduce inventory shrinkage and improve profitability. While the bill does not specify direct appropriations to companies, it establishes a new Organized Retail Crime Center within Homeland Security Investigations and provides grants to state and local law enforcement agencies. This funding will flow into enhanced investigative capabilities and technology procurement for these agencies. Companies providing advanced surveillance, data analytics, and cybersecurity solutions for law enforcement, such as Splunk ($SPLK) for data analysis, CrowdStrike ($CRWD) for threat intelligence, and Palo Alto Networks ($PANW) for network security, stand to benefit from increased government contracts and demand for their services as law enforcement agencies upgrade their capabilities to tackle sophisticated retail crime networks. Historically, legislative efforts to combat specific types of crime have led to increased spending on related technologies and services. For example, following the passage of the USA PATRIOT Act in October 2001, which expanded surveillance and law enforcement powers, companies providing security and data analysis tools saw increased demand. While specific market data for that period is complex due to broader market conditions, the trend of government investment in technology to address new mandates is clear. More recently, state-level initiatives against organized retail crime have shown positive impacts on retail sector profitability, though federal action provides a more unified and substantial response. Specific winners include large national retailers like Walmart ($WMT), Target ($TGT), Amazon ($AMZN), Home Depot ($HD), Lowe's ($LOW), Costco ($COST), CVS Health ($CVS), Walgreens Boots Alliance ($WBA), and Kroger ($KR), which suffer substantial losses from organized retail crime. These companies will see improved margins due to reduced theft. Technology companies like Splunk ($SPLK), CrowdStrike ($CRWD), and Palo Alto Networks ($PANW) are positioned to gain from increased government spending on crime-fighting technology. There are no clear losers identified by this bill; rather, it aims to mitigate losses for the retail sector. With the bill on the Union Calendar, the next step is a vote on the House floor. If passed by the House, it will move to the Senate for consideration. The strong bipartisan sponsorship (206 cosponsors) suggests a high likelihood of passage in the House, and potentially the Senate, given the widespread impact of organized retail crime.