HR6986

The COLAs Don't Count Act of 2026 amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008. It specifically excludes cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) from Social Security, Railroad Retirement Act, and certain Veterans Affairs benefits when determining eligibility and benefit amounts for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). This means that when beneficiaries receive a COLA, their SNAP benefits will not decrease, nor will they lose eligibility due to the COLA. This directly maintains or increases the disposable income available to SNAP recipients for food purchases. The money trail for this bill is indirect but clear. By preventing a reduction in SNAP benefits, the bill ensures that federal funds allocated to SNAP continue to flow to eligible households at current or higher levels. These funds are then spent at grocery stores and other retailers that accept SNAP benefits. There is no direct appropriation of new funds; rather, the bill protects existing benefit levels from being eroded by COLA-driven income increases. Historically, changes to SNAP eligibility or benefit calculations have directly impacted the revenues of major grocery retailers. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, enhanced SNAP benefits led to increased sales for grocers. While not a direct historical precedent for COLA exclusion, any policy that expands or protects SNAP purchasing power translates to increased sales for retailers. When the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 increased SNAP benefits by 15% for all recipients, major grocers like Walmart ($WMT) and Kroger ($KR) reported strong food sales growth in subsequent quarters, though specific stock movements are difficult to isolate from broader pandemic-era trends. Specific winners from this legislation are major grocery retailers and consumer staples companies. Walmart ($WMT), Kroger ($KR), Costco ($COST), Target ($TGT), and Amazon ($AMZN) (via Whole Foods and Amazon Fresh) all stand to gain from the sustained or increased purchasing power of SNAP recipients. These companies derive significant revenue from food sales, and a stable or growing SNAP program directly supports their top lines. There are no clear losers, as the bill aims to maintain existing benefit levels rather than reduce them. This bill was introduced on January 8, 2026, and referred to the House Committee on Agriculture. The effective date for the amendments is October 1, 2027. Given that Rep. Moore (D-WI-4) is a junior member and not a committee chair, and with only 6 cosponsors, the legislative momentum is moderate. The bill must pass through committee, then the full House, and then the Senate before becoming law. The earliest market impact would be upon passage, but the actual financial effect on companies would begin after the October 1, 2027, effective date.